Fadden – Australia 2025

Fadden contains
1. Bonney-92%
2. Broadwater-100%
3. Coomera 51%
4. Gaven -22%
5. Theordore 56%
Booths will be posted tomorrow first thing

@Nimalan thanks, will do then.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the state LNP outperform the federal LNP across the Gold Coast since they did quite well there plus David Crisafulli is from the Gold Coast, as are many senior ministers.

Either way the LNP will be eyeing Gaven next time while Labor will look to pick up Coomera, while the LNP will be eyeing lots of seats in Brisbane and Ipswich while Labor will be trying to make things even harder for the LNP in Brisbane (they would try and pick up Clayfield despite it being demographically unfavourable) from them plus get back Caloundra and Nicklin on the Sunny Coast.

Booths
1. Alberton
2. Arundel
3. Arundel East
4. Biggera Waters
5. Conowinda
6. Coombabah
7. Coombabah South
8. Coomera East
9. Harley Peak
10. Helensvale
11. Helensvale North
12. Hope Island
13. Jacobs Well
14. Labrador
15. Ormeau
16. Oxenford (joint booth)
16. Pacific Pines
17. Paradise Lakes
18. Paradise Point
19. Pimpampa
20. Runway Bay
21. Sanctuary Cove
22. Studio village (joint)
23. Woongoolba.
@NP I think this is your seat from memory, so should be nice and easy as you will know the booths. I agree with your comments. Caloundra is an interesting seat especially since it is rapidly growing. I will make a post about it tommorow on the Caloundra thread when i have time.

@Nimalan yep this is my seat, as I’m in Bonney on the state level.

I’ll do this one now.

@ Nether Portal

This is a good article to read by one Australia’s best election analyst on Fadden. It is blue ribbon Liberal because Broadwater is ultra safe Liberal even though other state seats are more marginal and winnable for Labor in a very good year.

https://www.malcolmmackerras.com/articles/2023/6/7/both-cook-amp-fadden-are-blue-ribbon-liberal?rq=Fadden

State level TPP here (2024):

* LNP: 64.6%
* Labor: 35.4%

Compared to the 2022 federal election, Labor did 4.0% worse on the state level, but compared to the 2024 by-election Labor did only 1.3% worse on the state level.

However, Labor still did WORSE on the state level, which shows that the state LNP did better than their federal counterparts on the Gold Coast. The other city they did better in was Mackay (and they also did better in the Whitsundays).

@Nimalan ah yes, I remember this article. And I agree, Cook and Fadden are both blue-ribbon Liberal hence why nobody was worried about Labor winning them. Aston is a marginal seat so while the fact that Labor won it was still a shock it wasn’t the end of the world for the Liberals. However, it did mean the federal Liberals were likely going to be wiped out in Melbourne for the first time in history if Deakin and Menzies also had by-elections on the same day.

I think the LNP embraced what I call “Gold Coast conservatism”. It’s essentially moderate to Morrison-style liberal conservatism (centre-right) where while some more woke ideas and progressive ideas like the Voice are opposed, less controversial progressive ideas like same-sex marriage and climate action are embraced. This is why the Gold Coast, while affluent and blue-ribbon, cannot be won over by teals or Greens. It’s also why the Gold Coast voted strongly Yes to gay marriage, but No to the Voice. While it’s usually the capital cities that are CALD and everywhere else is mostly white or Aboriginal, the Gold Coast is different. There are lots of Asian people on the Gold Coast, and it’s the centre of Australia’s Japanese community.

Because the state party embraced Gold Coast conservatism and cracked down on issues like COL and youth crime they won all but one seat on the Gold Coast. The one seat they didn’t win was Gaven where Meaghan Scanlon is popular as she was a minister in the Palaszczuk and Miles ministries, but Bianca Stone (a formerly journalist for Channel 7 who was Sunrise’s main journalist in the SEQ Bureau) came very close to winning it.

I think what influences this type of conservatism here is the fact that the Gold Coast is a touristy beach city with large industries in a variety of areas. It’s the main destination for schoolies and it’s even the main tourist destination in Australia for people flying in from Japan.

The Gold Coast also has direct international connections because Gold Coast Airport flies directly to various destinations in Australia, New Zealand and in Asian countries.

But then combined with all that it is still an affluent city.

Agree @Nether Portal, Gold Coast has a different type of Conservatism. It is certainly not One Nation type populism. I dont think people will Like Family First type conservatism, the Gold Coast is a party city like Miami so will not like wowserism or a nanny state. It is fiscally conservative and supports small government. The Canal estates in Fadden are very affluent.

@Nimalan I agree, it is similar to Miami (though less hot, Miami has Townsville-type climate).

@etherPortal:
But then combined with all that it is still an affluent city.
The reason the Goldy is poor pickings for Labor is there was never any significant Trades Union presernce in the area, unlike Nambour, Maryborough, Bundy, Gladsrone, Rocky, Mackay, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Mt Isa and Toowoomba, but it was a rick pastoral area, like Gympie.
Was there ever a Trades Hall in Southport?
The Goldy is a low wage [unless you’re in Hi Rise construction and working]/high rent area, no surprise that Labor can hold on to Gaven

@Gympie I agree with the first part, and that’s also why the entire coastline between Hervey Bay and Forster-Tuncurry in NSW (with the exception of Brisbane and Byron Bay plus the surrounding hippie towns) have always been conservative.

Even when you include Brisbane, Labor still only holds two coastal seats north of Newcastle on the East Coast: Lilley (in Brisbane) and Richmond (which includes Byron Bay). And every seat on the East Coast north of Newcastle voted No to the Voice.

As for the affluence, the Gold Coast has affluent parts and middle-class parts (like where I currently live) but not really any working-class parts. It’s weird because the most CALD areas are the most conservative ones and the richest ones whereas the whitest areas are the least conservative (unless they’re also semi-rural like Mudgeeraba) and the poorest, which is a reversal to literally everywhere else.

@ Nether Portal
I would not even say Lilley is really Coastal it is on a Bay and the beaches along Moreton Bay are just mangroves and mudflats which is why Labor usually does well there. Those beaches are not really worth putting on a tourism brochure.
In Brisbane, the Rich prefer to live along the River and the Hills rather than the Bay. Richmond is also Labor held because of the Alternative lifestyle communities in Byron Shire which are more Greens than Red and there is no real working class/industrial history there.

@Nether Portal
@Gympie I agree with the first part, and that’s also why the entire coastline between Hervey Bay and Forster-Tuncurry in NSW (with the exception of Brisbane and Byron Bay plus the surrounding hippie towns) have always been conservative.

Byron Bay had a Trade Union presence with the Norco Meatworks, the [seasonal] Whaling Station, later rteplaced by a 2nd Meatworks [all now closed/demolished] and a long history of Sand Mining, plus Cane in the Murwillumbah area, which was AWU dominated until mechanisation of harvesting.
The Condong Mill was also a big seasonal employer.
Brisbane has always had a prominent Trades Union presence, evidenced by Labor’s great show here at the State Election.

For the record:

Average weekly income in each capital city’s central electorate:
1. Canberra: $2,419
2. Sydney: $2,225
3. Solomon: $2,171
4. Brisbane: $2,114
5. Perth: $1,871
6. Melbourne: $1,840
8. Adelaide: $1,662
9. Clark: $1,573

And in each of the federal Gold Coast seats:
1. McPherson: $1,736
2. Fadden: $1,680
3. Moncrieff: $1,489

And in each of the state Gold Coast seats:
1. Coomera: $2,018
2. Theodore: $1,965
3. Mudgeeraba: $1,914
4. Mermaid Beach: $1,780
5. Burleigh: $1,718
6. Currumbin: $1,675
7. Gaven: $1,674
8. Broadwater: $1,601
9. Surfers Paradise: $1,505
10. Southport: $1,411
11. Bonney: $1,364
12. Tweed: $1,296

*While Tweed is in NSW and thus cannot be considered part of the Gold Coast proper, it is part of the Gold Coast-Tweed Heads conurbation.

@Gympie except places like Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Forster which are all coastal never had any big trade union presence either. And agricultural union members tend to be Nationals voters anyway.

@Nimalan I agree but I was making the point that Labor holds only two seats that touch the ocean that are north of Greater Newcastle (north of Paterson) that are on the East Coast (even if the other coasts are included only two others would be added: Lingiari and Solomon).

Nether Portal:
@ And agricultural union members tend to be Nationals voters anyway.
The history of Bundaberg and Mackay, plus the 6 “Country” seats in Qld up to the 1957 Election says otherwise with regard to the AWU.
If you’re referring to meatworkers as agricultural Union members, no doubt some are/were Nationals/Country Party voters, but Swifts meatworks in Gladstone was the main employer there until 1963,
the history is non Labor Parties only held the seat for 3 three year Terms between 1909 and 1963 [as Port Curtis].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Port_Curtis
Biloela is another Meatworks town [plant built in 1963 to replace Swifts in Gladstone which had been closed and demolished to allow the Alumina refinery to be built].
Labor’s vote at the booth there [Callide] was poor in 2020 and ’24, but a heathy 38% in 2017.
https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/booth15.html

@ Gympie
I never knew that Byron Bay had a union presence i always thought it was a sleepy coastal town until hippies discovered. I know the AWU used to be strong in Western NSW. I learnt something new. What are the 6 country seats that the AWU had a presence in until 1957.

I’m always surprised by how low median incomes are on the Gold Coast. What’s the explanation?

@ Nicholas, a lot of retirees. Income is not always a good indicator of wealth. Growth areas have high income because they have a high workforce participation very few renters, unemployed peoples, students, adult children children living at home and retirees. However, growth areas often have lower wealth especially inter generational wealth if they have a large immigrant population. Wealth is often correlated with age/asset ownership rather than income.

It is why Coomera has the highest income as it is a growth area eventhough it has very affordable property compared to Surfers Paradise or Broadwater with its canal estates.

@ Nimalan:
What are the 6 country seats that the AWU had a presence in until 1957.
My mistake, there were 10, Balonne, Barcoo, Bauhinia, Belyando, Carpentaria, Charters Towers, Flinders, Gregory, Roma and Warrego.
These seats were created at the 1949 redistribution, average # electors was 4,500, Nothen [Qld] zone was 7,500, Metropolitan Zone was 10,500, link:
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/187177515/21063767
At the time, Australia rode on the sheeps back, these were woolgrowing areas, the AWU had always claimed representation of shearers, these were ALP seats.
Things changed after the 1956 Qld Shearers Strike, beef cattle, which don’t require shearing, plus shearers are easier to locate than ringers and drovers for the purposes of extracting Union dues, gradually replaced sheep.
Barcaldine, birthplace of the 1891 Labour Party, along with Blackall, is still a sheep area.
My limited research indicates Bill Prest, longtime member for Gladstone was the last Labor MLA to have been a shearer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Prest
According to Wiki, [reading between the lines] Prest was retired by Labor at the ’92 election for calling Bob Katter, then Member for Flinders, now Federal MHR for Kenedy, a ‘gin jockey’.

@Nimalan I agree, the retiree population brings down how wealthy the Gold Coast really is. Coomera isn’t the richest seat, it would have to be Broadwater, Mermaid Beach or Surfers Paradise.

@ NP
Another thing i would point out is that many regional electorates often show up as lower income due to high median age. However, this masks the fact that these areas often have high home ownership rates and since you have families that have lived there for generations higher inter generational wealth. This is different to areas like Bankstown which are younger, more renters, less inter generational wealth. There was an article below that said Libs are now are the party of the poor which is an ecological fallacy IMV and disregards factors such as Average voter age and asset ownership.

https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/the-liberals-need-to-embrace-their-working-class-voters-to-win-over-the-outer-suburban-freedom-fighters

@Nimalan
The north coast started ad a logging area in the 1850s, later moved into dairying.
Up til the postwar, dairying included raising pork and/or cheesemaking and egg production. Reason being that Board Quotas were for Cream only, the skim was either used to fatten pigs or to make cheese.
At that time, 40 cows was a big operation, there were many hundreds of dairies on the North Coast.
That was the basis of the prosperity. of the NSW coastal border area.
Gympie and Beaudesert in Qld were similar.

@Nimalan, I think the amount of low income is also distorted in suburbs with a high proportion of small business owners or tradies as many are cash-based to evade as much taxes possible (for small business, it is to pay employees especially immigrants below the minimum wages).

@Nimalan, as for areas immigrant working class areas like Bankstown and St Albans, immigrants are disproportionally working in cash-based jobs making the median income look extremely low

@ marh
Agree but a lot of people in St Albans and Dandenong are renters and may even be refugees who lost everything in a war so they are much worse of than white working class voters who may inherit wealth I don’t believe the Libs can appeal to St Albans like they do in Northern Tasmania

@ Gympie
Apologies i missed your response for some reason. thanks for the information. I agree the AWU had a presence in the pastoral areas they also used to be strong in the old seat of Gwydir. I am guessing these days a lot of Shearing is done by Foreign workers. I note other agricultural work is now mechanized so the rural working class is much less. I also note Nimbin used to be a dairy town. I think Casino in Page is still known as a Beef capital in stark contrast to the areas around Lismore which are known for high AJP vote etc.